Hello everyone. This post was submitted by our first guest blogger. Today's analysis on Derek Jeter's quest for his 3,000th hit was brought to you by friend-of-the-blog, The Nose. He's an expert (in my opinion) in all-things-baseball and is surgical with Microsoft Excel formulas. Enjoy.
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Below is my summary of Derek Jeter's hits mark, and when I think he will break the record. Yes - excel formulas were used. And yes - I had fun with this.
So, it's no surprise to anyone that Derek Sanderson Jeter is getting older by the day. Last years hits and batting averages had many people questioning his worth, longevity, and ability to sustain a playing career. Jeter has worked countless hours this offseason to hone his hitting skills and prowess at the plate and is still considered, by many, to be one of the top players in the league. On the contrary, many people think that Derek Jeter's numbers are on the decline, due to that one poor season. I beg to differ.
Through his first five seasons, Mr. Jeter has averaged 1.2824 hits per game. Through his next five, 1.2557. Through his last five, you ask? Including this past season, where Jeter averaged a mere .270, his five year average is actually HIGHER than that of his first five and second five year tenure as Yankee shortstop, at 1.2857. If Jeter continues his stretch from the last five years, he will achieve his 3,000th hit in game 39 this season, or home, vs. BOSTON, on Friday the 13th. Too much negative energy for that to happen. A home game? against Boston? to achieve history? On Friday the 13th, no less? Can't possibly happen. Something has to give...
What's that something, though? How about the fact that his career average hits per game is 1.2749, and that his running 5 year average is 1.2746, which, in both scenarios, makes Jeter's 3,000th hit, assuming he plays in EVERY game this season, which, believe it or not, he has NEVER done, comes in game #59, which is Saturday, June 4, at Los Angeles. From May 27 through June 5, the Yankees go on a 9 game west coast road trip. Jeter, in his career .321 at home, and .307 on the road. Although a large discrepancy, it's not enough to warrant a difference in opinion.
The long road trip, mixed with Jeter's pyschie, may cause for a few more additional games for him to get that elusive hit. Wait 2, 3, or even 4 more days? Than that hit will come against, yes, you guessed it... Boston! Tuesday June 7, 8, or 9.
My analysis was based on hits per game. So now you're probably thinking. Well Joe, hits/game aren't the only factor to take into account. Jeter has had a storied career, and one would think that many variables can come into play. Well, my friend, after a detailed analysis on hits per at bats, it has come to a conclusion that Jeter will STILL get his 3,000th hit in Los Angeles, this time, Friday night, June 3.
Conclusion:Now begs the question: when should we buy tickets for. Unfortunately, Boston tickets are already pricey and hard to come by. So, my suggestion is to do this:
Before that 9 game road trip is three home games, all during the week, against Toronto; May 23, 24, and 25. However, if one thinks that he will go cold during the road trip, and knowing Girardi, he will want Jeter to get this hit at home, might "rest" Jeter during a few of these games; especially with a day game following a night game on both Wednesday, June 1, and Sunday, June 5. Being that Boston is on the other end of that road trip, might be then best to get tickets to a game or two for the Friday-Monday series, June 10, 11, 12, and 13 home vs. Cleveland. Also, assuming Jeter will get approximately 2-3 "rest days" off, game 59 does actually fall during the Boston series, Tuesday June 7 to Thursday, June 9.
Days, in order, which I think he will get his hit:Saturday, June 4, @ LAA
Tuesday, June 7, home vs. Boston
Friday, June 10, home vs. Cleveland
Wednesday, May 25, home vs. Toronto
Wednesday, June 8, home vs. Boston
Thursday, June 9, home vs. Boston
Saturday, June 11, home vs. Toronto
And that, my friend, concludes my far-from-expert opinion and calculation on when Jeter will get his 3,000th hit.
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